The NIE Report

This cartoon from today's Arab News (originally from the Arabic Al-Watan newspaper) had me puzzled. Who is Abu Mussa and what are the Greater and Lesser Tunbs?

Well, it turns out that they are all islands in the Strait of Hormuz (see map below) which are claimed by both Iran an the UAE.

Anyway, the point is that the cartoonist appears to be unconvinced by the recently released NIE report which stated that:

We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons
program

Like many others, I have a certain scepticism when it comes to the US intelligence community. The media, however, seems to be completely ignoring the remainder of the document which says things like:-

... we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.
. . .
We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were
working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.
. . .
... the NIC assess with only moderate confidence that the halt to those activities represents a halt to Iran's entire nuclear weapons program.
. . .
... we do not know whether it currently intends to develop nuclear weapons.

The overall tone of the document contrasts somewhat with the first sentence on which the MSM have focused so much.

The reaction to this document (not least the gloating of the regime in Iran) is such that I have to suspect that something is going on. So far I have come up with two theories:

The first is quite simple: someone highly placed in the US intelligence community opposes President Bush's policies and is determined to stop any possible military action against Iran in the last year or so of Bush's presidency.

The other theory is a little bit more elaborate: it is possible that Iran has decided to "do a Libya". They have decided that they want UN sanctions removed and to enable this to happen, they have agreed to stop their nuclear weapons program and to allow IAEA inspectors to visit their civil nuclear plants.

Of course, they can't openly agree to this without a massive loss of face. It has to be done in such a way that they do not lose face - and how could that be achieved? If the US intelligence community announces that Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program after all, then everything else falls into place.

Before long you should expect to see IAEA inspectors visiting Iran and then sanctions being lifted. Alternatively, the "quid pro quo" for this intelligence report is Iran stopping its support for the insurgents in Iraq.

Don't we humans love a good conspiracy theory!

Update: This article in the Telegraph shares my scepticism over the NIE report but has a different theory. Apparently, British spy chiefs think that Iran may have 'hoodwinked' the CIA.

These conspiracy theories are good fun, but I wonder if my amusement won't turn to radioactive ashes one day when a nuclear bomb explodes over Tel Aviv?